Scenario Modelling

Scenario Modeller is an interactive, Windows-based modelling package which enables the user to explore the effects of alternative economic assumptions on the future path of the South African economy at macro level. Interfaces are provided through which the user can quickly and easily change economic input variables and examine the effects on key indicators of the economy. The modeller uses a comprehensive econometric model which is updated each quarter, with latest data available and mid, high and low forecasts for the economy. Output can be readily transferred to company models and tables in Microsoft Excel, or into Microsoft Word documents.

Scenario Modeller

• provides an interactive, user-friendly means for examining the likely effects of alternative assumptions on the South African economy
• quantifies the effects of changes in key macroeconomic variables
• can be used by companies to provide quantified economic scenarios for strategic planning and investment decision purposes
• can be used by public sector organisations to examine and determine economic policies and development strategies likely to be most beneficial towards their policy objectives

Scenario Modeller makes use of

• a comprehensive database of economic data at macro level
• a sophisticated macro econometric model which runs interactively within the package and provides alternative forecasts and trends according to the assumptions used
• interactive screens, which enable rapid retrieval of information and model recalculation for alternative scenarios and strategies
• graphic displays to give a rapid, clear appreciation of the effects of scenario assumptions.

Scenario Modeller is updated on a quarterly basis with latest data available and most recent econometric model forecasts. It is provided on an annual service basis which includes ongoing technical support as well as software and data/forecast provision. The package is able to run on any Windows computer with Microsoft Office installed.

Benefits

• ability to examine interactively a wide range of alternative future scenarios for the South African economy
• quantification of economic effects of changes in key economic variables (e.g. interest rates, exchange rates, gold price)
• rapid, user-friendly response to enable real-time use in conjunction with company's strategic planning workshops or meetings
• exploration of economic policy alternatives and enhanced appreciation of the interaction of economic variables
• authoritative forecasts of macroeconomic variables (GDP, growth, investment, interest rates, etc) over the next 5 years under different assumptions (mid, high, low), updated each quarter
• easy integration with in-house planning models and documents. Scenarios can be linked to in-house or custom spreadsheet models for more detailed planning and evaluation.